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Prolonged Mid-November Arctc Blast first since 1937

Blasts of Arctic Air not unusual for area. What's unusual this year is longevity
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From Western Kentucky University

BOWLING GREEN, KY - The blast of arctic air that brought an early start to winter across Kentucky on Wednesday is projected to last well into next week and may bring the first measurable snow of the season to the Commonwealth.



Nothing like this since 1937

With high temperatures across the state expected to remain below even mid-January highs for at least a week, this would be the first prolonged mid-November arctic outbreak of this magnitude since 1937.

"Blasts of arctic air in mid-November are not unusual for Kentucky," said Dr. Greg Goodrich, Associate Professor of Meteorology with the Kentucky Climate Center at Western Kentucky University. "What is unusual about this outbreak is the prolonged nature of the event. This is only the second time we've had a weeklong mid-November outbreak like this in Kentucky since at least the late 1800s."

Historical records for Bowling Green document a period of eight consecutive days beginning on Nov. 16, 1937, when the temperature did not reach 45 degrees. The current cold spell began on Nov. 12, when the high temperature in Bowling Green reached only 39. If the forecast holds, this year could mark the earliest onset of such a prolonged spell of cold weather.

Two chances of measurable snows over the weekend

There are two chances for measurable snowfall over the weekend. If measurable snowfall occurs in Bowling Green it would be the first mid-November snow since 1968 when two-tenths of an inch of snow fell on November 19.

Often the first question people have after an early start to winter like this is whether or not this means Kentucky will have a cold winter. "Unfortunately, there is no correlation between early season arctic outbreaks and the rest of the winter," Dr. Goodrich said. "It is equally likely that we could have a warmer or colder than normal winter."

While it is often difficult to attribute the cause for such an unusual weather event, this arctic outbreak is an exception.

"The cause of this outbreak is certainly attributable to the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri, which recently became one of the strongest extratropical storms in the North Pacific and battered parts of coastal Alaska last week," Dr. Goodrich said. The storm had enough energy to dislodge the polar vortex and send it southward across the central United States.



This story was posted on 2014-11-16 10:18:04
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